Once Bullish, Leon Cooperman Grows Wary of Stock Valuations

For years famed investor Leon Cooperman has talked up stocks. But on last night’s show, he sounded the alarm.

Cooperman, who is a widely followed investor and chairman of the hedge fund Omega, has made headlines for quite some time calling stocks 'the best house in the financial asset neighborhood.'

Back in 2011, Cooperman outlined his pro-stock market thesis at length on CNBC.

But on The Kudlow Report, Cooperman made a surprising statement that presumably reflected a shift in his outlook. He told Larry, “I think the stock market presently is fairly valued. I believe the profit cycle is peaking.”

Cooperman went on to say that the market multiple may be too high.

“Historically the market multiple is around 15,” said Cooperman, but over the past 50 years or so the growth rate has been much more robust. If we’re moving into a period of slower growth than the premium investors are willing to pay for stocks will probably decline. 

That’s not to say Cooperman is a seller – he’s not. “I’m not aggressively bullish or bearish,” he explained, “I’m simply saying I think the market is now fairly valued.”

And he reiterated something he’s said many times before. 

“If you must put money to work I still don’t think there’s a better alternative than common stocks – the Fed has made all the alternatives very unappealing."

Nonetheless, his commentary suggests his outlook is shifting.

Cooperman also told Larry Kudlow that he thought all the concerns about the fiscal cliff or the confluence of tax hikes and spending cuts that could go into effect as soon as January 1^st – are overblown.

“They’ll kick the can down the road,” he said. “There’s no way a politician will allow the cliff to hit.”

Does the Fed Have Grave Concerns About the Economy?

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve re-affirmed its commitment to using unconventional efforts to stimulate the economy.

In the latest Fed statement, the central bank said it would keep buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed debt per month to push interest rates lower.

The Fed also repeated its vow to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2015.

Although that may seem like the Fed is sending a signal to markets that they’re intent to drive the economy, no matter what the cost – that may not be what the Fed is really saying.

According to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh the move isn’t a show of strength – it’s something far more ominous.

“I think the Fed revealed in their actions just how grave they think the economy is,” he said on The Kudlow Report.

The statement shows, “just how concerned they are about the economy’s prospects – just how concerned they are about the 'fiscal cliff' and Europe.”

Warsh served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2011. From 2002 to 2006, Warsh was Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the National Economic Council.

His take on the Fed – as someone who was once on the inside – is that the Fed feels they’re the only institution standing between the nation and a terrible downturn.

“The central bankers feel their doing it all by themselves – that they’re not getting help from Congress or the administration.”

It seems Wall Street may share the skepticism expressed by Warsh. Again both the Dow and S&P closed lower.

Mitt's Tax Cut Mulligan

For some unknown reason, Mitt Romney dialed back his tax-cut plan yesterday, the same day new reports showed incomes are dropping.

Last month, median household income fell by about $500, and since Obama became president, income is down over $4,500. But under Mitt Romney’s 20 percent tax-cut plan, if he truly believes it and follows through with it, a married couple making $70,000 a year would save over $2,000. And take-home pay for a middle-class married couple earning about $140,000 -- with their tax rate dropping to 20 percent from 25 percent -- would increase by over $7,100. Obama has no such middle-class tax cuts.

So why would Governor Romney tell an Ohio crowd on Wednesday that they shouldn’t “be expecting a huge cut in taxes, ’cause I’m also going to lower deductions and exemptions.”

What is that all about? What kind of message is he sending? Is it pro-growth take-home pay? Or is he pulling back and hedging his bet?

I wrote in my last column about the potential benefits of the Romney plan. And I suggested that Romney should give specific examples of higher take-home pay from his tax cuts. And then I suggested that he draw a red line for middle-income taxpayers, and say “you will not lose you’re your deductions.” In other words, send a true growth message. And make it clear, not muddied.

This afternoon, one of the most senior people in the Romney-Ryan camp called me to say that Mitt misspoke, and that I should give him a mulligan. This person told me there’s no pull-back on the pro-growth tax-cut message, no new overemphasis on debt, and no departure from the Reagan-Kemp tradition.

Okay, even though I’m a tennis player, I’m willing to give Mr. Romney a mulligan. But I’ll say this: The growth message has to be crystal clear for the debate next Wednesday night. Mitt is slipping in the polls. People are confused about his message. He must clarify it.

Lower marginal tax rates. Higher middle-class take-home pay to offset lost income under Obama. More family financial resources. More growth and more jobs.

This doesn’t have to be so hard.

Just How Fragile is the U.S. Economy?

As if the looming "fiscal cliff" isn’t frightening enough, new results suggest it’s already doing very serious damage to the economy. And it’s only September.

According to a new survey released by the Business Roundtable, corporate America’s view of the economy is as bleak now as it was in 2009, when the economy was struggling to emerge from recession.

Also, the survey shows executives are now more likely to cut jobs over the next six months, and that companies are less likely to raise their capital spending.

Largely the CEOs who participated in the study cited the "fiscal cliff," or the confluence of tax hikes and spending cuts that could go into effect as soon as January 2013, as a major influence behind their decisions.

Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris called the fiscal cliff a 'multiplier' that makes any negative catalyst that much worse.

As much as $500 billion in federal spending reductions and expiring tax cuts are due to take effect if Congress and the White House are unable to find a compromise on these issues by Dec. 31, 2012.
As a result, the CEOs also lowered their forecasts for U.S. economic growth.

“The government is failing us as a whole,” charged Liveris on The Kudlow Report. “This is self-inflicted uncertainty.”

They now expect real gross domestic product to rise 1.9 percent in 2012, down from a June forecast of 2.1 percent growth.

In turn, these concerns have already begun to ripple across the economy, and may in part explain the spate of lowered earnings forecasts from companies such as FedEx and Norfolk Southern.

The findings come less than two months ahead of the U.S. presidential election, in which the weak economy and stubbornly high unemployment are shaping up to be key elements in voters' choice between incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The Romney campaign was quick to call out the results as a sign that Obama's economic policies were not working.

"Business leaders have the gloomiest outlook in three years and the President's failed economic policies of higher taxes and more regulations will only make things worse," spokesman Ryan Williams said in a statement.

The Obama campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Whatever president and congress we get in November, it doesn’t matter. What matters is that we get one that gives us solutions,” said Liveris.

CEOs who participate in the Business Roundtable collectively generate $7.3 trillion in annual revenue and employ some 16 million people.

Romney Didn't Make the Sale

Did Mitt Romney make the economic sale at the Republican National Convention? Did he convince people who are living at the margin or unemployed and discouraged that he has the answers to the economy? Frankly, I don’t think so.

I do not understand why he did not talk about his 20 percent across-the-board personal tax cut plan that would help the middle class enormously. He never mentioned it and he went into no detail on the business tax cut plan.

This plan is terrific for competition and global investment. He talked about a jobs tour. I frankly have no idea what a “jobs tour” is. I do know that 23 million Americans need jobs. I don’t know that they need a president on a jobs tour to inspect them.

It concerns me that in the economic zone, he didn’t make the sale to the independents, so-called Reagan Democrats, or to Clinton Democrats. I didn’t hear anything new. I didn’t hear anything specific, and it troubles me. I do think he helped himself enormously with his biographical narrative. He came off as a humble, grateful man.

Again, on the economic front I don’t think he made the sale; I don’t think he convinced the independent voters and I don’t think he’s going in the right direction in tax policy.

ON BIG BUSINESS:

I think he needs to be more specific. It’s not about big business -- it’s really about small business. And guess what? Small businesses pay the personal tax rate — the LLCs and the S-corps. That is another reason why I don’t understand why he doesn’t talk about the 20 percent tax cut. It helps small businesses and it’s the opposite contrast to Obama, who wants to raise taxes on those people. I didn’t hear any contrast Thursday night, except a passage on success. The best line from an economic standpoint was “In America, we celebrate success, we don’t apologize for success." That is a great line, but I wish he had more contrast with President Obama.

ON MARCO RUBIO:

Sen. Marco Rubio’s introduction of Romney was one of the most brilliant speeches I have heard in a long time. Freedom was his key point. America is about freedom — economic freedom, political freedom, religious freedom, and faith. It was just utterly brilliant and the guy is an absolute Republican superstar.

Paul Ryan's Speech: Too Much Debt, Not Enough Growth

Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan gave a powerful speech Wednesday that repeatedly brought conventioneers at the Republican National Convention in Tampa to their feet.  I am going to give him high marks for his speech’s delivery.

Ryan, in typical fashion, seriously and analytically ripped apart the Obama Economy, what has been called Obamanomics.  He ripped it to pieces, and it needed to be done.  But most especially, he ripped apart Obamacare.  Ryan also did his level best to defend the Republicans against the usual attacks on Medicare reform—that is, what the Democrats call “Mediscare”.

However, I was disappointed that his economic growth solutions were somewhat muddled and unclear.  At one point in the speech, rather than speak about Mitt Romney’s own tax rate proposals, Ryan used the term “tax fairness,” a Democratic term frequently used by President Obama and other liberal Democrats.   This was surprising to me.   Ryan cited Jack Kemp and the Reagan tax reform (and I am, of course, part of that gang).

But the reality is, Ryan never mentioned tax cuts during his speech.  Not the 20 percent across-the-board supply-side reduction in marginal tax rates, nor the 25 percent corporate tax rate down from 35 percent.  These pro-growth measures have been proposed by Mitt Romney, but it is a mystery to me why Ryan did not mention them.  

He dwelled on debt to an extreme point.  I don’t think discussing debt connects with people who are unemployed or marginally employed.  I think they want a good-paying job, and debt is almost an academic abstraction.    When Republicans run on debt and deficits, they almost always lose.    When Republicans run on growth, limited government, lower spending, lower tax rates, and de-regulation—they win.  Ryan’s speech was confusing on the growth issue, and that was disappointing;  I don’t want to be confused and the American people shouldn’t be confused.

It will be left to Mitt Romney on Thursday night to clarify his own growth policies.   I want growth, growth, growth.  Wednesday night,  I didn’t get growth, growth, growth;   I heard debt, debt, debt. 

Larry Kudlow Interview at the RNC